Consultancy & Collaboration
Insightful Analysis. Strategic Foresight. Lasting Capability.
At UpSight, we help organizations navigate complexity, anticipate risk, and gain important insights by delivering data-driven solutions tailored to your needs. Our consultancy is grounded in academic rigor and powered by data science—merging expertise in peace, conflict, development, and political risk with state-of-the-art forecasting and analytical approaches.
We partner with international organizations, NGOs, private companies, and public institutions to provide timely, evidence-based insights into emerging sociopolitical and developmental dynamics. From strategic briefings and political risk forecasts to in-depth analyses of violence, governance, and social outcomes, our deliverables are developed to inform both internal decision-making and broader public engagement.
In addition to producing actionable analysis, we also support long-term capacity building–helping clients design custom forecasting systems and data infrastructures to meet the demands of a rapidly evolving, information-driven world. For an example of our work in action, see our featured case study project in collaboration with the Kofi Annan Foundation below.
Consultancy Model
Our Consultancy Model is Built Around
Two Core Branches
Delivering
Actionable
Analysis
We deliver high-impact reports, forecasts, and analytical briefings that help clients understand current developments and anticipate what comes next. These deliverables are designed to inform stategy, policy, and engagement–whether for internal planning or public dissemination.
Developing
Organizational
Capabilities
Beyond reports, we support long-term capacity building. We design and implement custom forecasting systems, monitoring frameworks, and analytical infrastructure that strengthen in-house capabilities and prepare organizations for a data-driven future.
Combining scholarly rigor with the clarity and precision required in high-stakes policy environments. Delivering actionable analysis and strengthening long-term organizational capacity.
Case Study: The Kofi Annan Foundation Partnership
Promoting
Democracy
& Peace
By Forecasting Electoral
Vulnerabilities & Violence
Developing An Electoral Vulnerability Index & Risk Forecasting System
Despite democratic progress in many regions, elections around the world–whether in established or emerging democracies–continue to spark violence. Rising polarization, declining trust in institutions, and frustration with democratic performance have intensified tensions and increased the stakes surrounding electoral processes. In collaboration with the Kofi Annan Foundation, UpSight has developed Electoral Vulnerability Indexes (EVI) and a risk forecasting system to assess electoral vulnerabilities and the future likelihood of election-related violence globally. Drawing on a diverse set of indicators and advanced machine learning methods, the system–illustrated in the flowchart in Figure 1–is designed to help international and domestic stakeholders identify at-risk elections and allocate preventive resources more effectively.
Figure 1. Forecasting System Flowchart – Predicting Electoral Vulnerabilities & Violence
Explore the Full Forecasts & Reports!
The Kofi Annan Foundation makes its full forecasts, annual reports, and Electoral Vulnerability Indexes (EVI) freely available to the public, reflecting a strong commitment to transparency, democratic resilience, and informed global engagement. For detailed information on upcoming elections in 2025 and 2026, in-depth risk assessments, and the methodology behind the forecasting system, visit their site and explore the latest insights!
Evaluating the System’s Capacity
The results from the system’s prediction evaluations, as illustrated in Figure 2 and discussed in detail in the accompanying technical report, indicate high forecasting accuracy. The forecasting system developed in collaboration with the Kofi Annan Foundation demonstrates strong and reliable predictive performance. Across both one- and two-year forecasting horizons, the model accurately distinguishes between elections with no, moderate, and severe levels of violence. With accuracy exceeding 80% and well-calibrated probability estimates–reflected in low Brier scores–the system not only identifies electoral risk effectively but does so with consistent and meaningful confidence.
Figure 2. Predictive Performance: Evaluation Metrics & Matrices
Importantly, the model rarely misclassifies elections with severe violence as peaceful. For example, in the one-year forecast, over half of all elections that experienced severe violence were correctly identified, and none were incorrectly predicted to be peaceful. These results suggest that the tool can serve as a robust early warning system, helping international and domestic stakeholders prioritize attention and resources where they are most needed.
The Projects Significance
This project stands as a testament to the Kofi Annan Foundation’s leadership in promoting democratic resilience and preventing electoral violence, and it highlights how data can be effectively leveraged to generate insights with real policy relevance. UpSight contributed advanced analytical tools to support this effort–helping to anticipate risks, guide preventive action, and strengthen democratic processes.
This collaboration with the Kofi Annan Foundation is driven by a shared commitment to protecting electoral integrity worldwide and providing timely, actionable information to decision-makers and the public.
