Author: UpSight Admin

Reference Vesco, P., Baliki, G., Brück, T., Döring, S., Eriksson, A., Fjelde, H., Guha-Sapir, D., Hall, J., Knutsen, C. H., Leis, M. R., Mueller, H., Rauh, C., Rudolfsen, I., Swain, A., Timlick, A., Vassiliou, P. T., von Schreeb, J., von Uexkull, N., & Hegre, H. (2025). The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A […]

Reference Randahl, D., Leis, M., Gåsste, T., Fjelde, H., Hegre, H., Lindberg, S., & Wilson, S. (2025). Forecasting Electoral Violence. International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming. Abstract Electoral violence remains a significant challenge worldwide. It not only threatens to undermine the legitimacy and fairness of electoral outcomes,but often has serious repercussions on political stability broadly. The […]

Reference Randahl, D., Williams, J., & Hegre, H. (2025). Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict. Political Analysis, Forthcoming. Abstract Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictions, they often lack individual-level uncertainty estimates, limiting their […]

Reference Hegre, H., Vesco, P., Colaresi, M., Vestby, J., Timlick, A., Kazmi, N. S., Lindqvist-McGowan, A., Becker, F., Binetti, M., Bodentien, T., Bohne, T., Brandt, P. T., Chadefaux, T., Drauz, S., Dworschak, C., D’Orazio, V., Frank, H., Fritz, C., Gleditsch, K. S., … Walterskirchen, J. (2025). The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of […]

Reference Hatz, S., Fjelde, H., & Randahl, D. (2024). Could vote buying be socially desirable? Exploratory analyses of a ‘failed’ list experiment. Quality & Quantity, 58(3), 2337–2355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-023-01740-6 Abstract List experiments encourage survey respondents to report sensitive opinions they may prefer not to reveal. But, studies sometimes find that respondents admit more readily to sensitive […]

Reference Randahl, D., & Vegelius, J. (2024). Inference with Extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models. International Studies Quarterly, 68(4), sqae137. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae137 Abstract Processes that occasionally, but not always, produce extreme values are notoriously difficult to model, as a small number of extreme observations may have a large impact on the results. Existing […]

Reference Rød, Espen Geelmuyden, Tim Gåsste, and Håvard Hegre. 2024. “A Review and Comparison of Conflict Early Warning Systems.” International Journal of Forecasting 40(1): 96–112. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.001. Abstract We review and compare conflict early warning systems on three dimensions: transparency and accessibility, key parameters, and forecasts. The review reveals a need for improved transparency and accessibility […]

Reference Rød, E. G., Hegre, H., & Leis, M. (2023). Predicting armed conflict using protest data. Journal of Peace Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231186452 Abstract Protest is a low-intensity form of political conflict that can precipitate intrastate armed conflict. Data on protests should therefore be informative in systems that provide early warnings of armed conflict. However, since most […]

Reference Gåsste, Tim, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Sofia Nordenving, AlexaTimlick, Marina Matić, Paola Vesco, and Håvard Hegre. 2023. Global Mapping of Early-Warning Systems A synthesis report for armed conflict, Natural Hazards, and Epidemics, United Nations High Comissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Abstract In a 2023 call for proposals, The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was c to […]

Reference Hegre, H., Akbari, F., Croicu, M., Dale, J., Gåsste, T., Jansen, R., Landsverk, P., Leis, M., Lindqvist-McGowan, A., Mueller, H., Rakhmankulova, M., Randahl, D., Rauh, C., Rød, E. G., & Vesco, P. (2022). Forecasting fatalities. https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-476476